The Limits of Resistance: a Realist View of Iran’s Vulnerabilities in Deterrence and Power Projection

Abstract

This article examines the vulnerabilities exposed during Iran’s war with Israel in June 2025, as well as the regional and international reactions to the conflict. It seeks to identify the military, strategic, and political weaknesses revealed during the war and to propose measures through which Iran may address these shortcomings in the future. The study also assesses the effectiveness of Iran’s defense strategy and the broader implications of the conflict for regional security dynamics in the Middle East. The findings suggest that, despite widespread expectations of a decisive Israeli advantage, Iran demonstrated considerable resilience and military capability during the June 2025 conflict. Iranian resistance, which continued to be evident during subsequent confrontations in February 2026, highlighted the country’s ability to absorb and respond to external military pressure. Nevertheless, the conflict exposed significant vulnerabilities in Iran’s military infrastructure, air defense systems, intelligence capabilities, and strategic deterrence posture. These weaknesses raised important questions regarding the sustainability and effectiveness of Iran’s existing security strategy. The study is primarily based on secondary sources, including academic literature, policy reports, media analyses, and official statements. A brief review of the relevant literature examines Iran’s deterrence policy, its reliance on non-state actors and proxy networks, and its broader regional security doctrine. By analyzing the conduct and consequences of the war, the article contributes to understanding the strengths and limitations of Iran’s military power and offers policy recommendations aimed at enhancing its defensive capabilities and reducing vulnerabilities in future conflicts.